Today the Congressional Budget Office released revised estimates of the deficit and debt effects of the House tax bill as amended by Chairman Kevin Brady’s (R-TX) mark from last week. Under the CBO’s analysis, the initial Chairman’s Mark of the tax bill would increase the deficit by $1.7 trillion during the ten-year budget window, greater than the $1.5 trillion increase authorized by the Joint Budget Resolution (see our prior post on the Senate’s passage of the resolution here). These estimates do not reflect the revisions made by the Chairman’s amendments adopted on Monday, which reportedly further decrease expected revenues.
In light of the CBO score, it is certain that the Senate version of the proposed legislation will not be identical to the House tax bill. In order for the bill to qualify for the streamlined reconciliation rules in the Senate, under which it could not be filibustered, it must satisfy the standards of the Budget Resolution, which also require that the bill not increase the deficit in the period after the ten-year budget window. Official estimates of the bill’s effect on those periods have not yet been released.