The Joint Committee on Taxation (“JCT”) released two documents over the weekend comparing the House and Senate Bills – one describing the differences and similarities between the two bills, and a second focusing on the effect that those differences have on the revenue generated by each bill on a static basis. The JCT’s revenue comparison finds that both bills cost roughly the same amount before factoring in economic growth – with the House Bill clocking in at $1.4455 trillion over ten years with the Senate Bill at $1.4468 trillion.
The JCT also released its dynamic score of the final House Bill yesterday, estimating that the House Bill would increase the level of real GDP relative to the baseline forecast by 0.7% on average throughout the 10-year budget window. According to the report, the growth generated by the House Bill is projected to reduce the revenue loss from the proposal by about $483 billion over the 2018-2027 budget period. When balanced against the costs of servicing increased federal debt (about $55 billion), the JCT concluded that when taking into account economic growth produced by the House Bill, the House Bill would reduce federal revenues by $1.0175 trillion over ten years.
The JCT’s findings contradict statements from the Trump Administration and Republican leaders in Congress, who have argued that the tax bill would pay for itself when factoring in economic growth.